It's an excellent question, Justin. I believe orchestras are completely unique in the collective effort it takes to successfully pull off their objective. Not just do you have the decades of training by each musician, conductor, etc., but the composer as well, plus the instrument making over centuries of gradual evolution in their craft. I believe orchestras are evolving and so are the audiences. They will still be around in centuries to come but I don’t believe their role will be the same. To me the important question isn't really what's next for the orchestra, but rather what is next for writing serious music. This is a quote I really like: "A few twentieth century composers achieved extraordinary fame: Sibelius’s fiftieth birthday in 1915 was front page news in Finnish papers. It is inconceivable that anything like this would ever happen to a composer of classical music today. At best, he or she can only hope to create a mild ripple in the mass media pond. The last work whose premiere was a major public event was probably Britten’s War Requiem in 1962. The great communicators today are in the world of rock music." - Composer David Matthews. It seems around the 1950's and 60's, rock became the music that connects with the feelings of the audiences when classical music boldly alienated its audience. I think that hurts us today because ultimately music has to be a communicative medium - it has to say something of relevance to someone in my belief. Beethoven was a composer functioning at the peak of his creative powers where only classical music could be the canvas for his art and the orchestra being the greatest range of that canvas. I'm not sure if he was alive today, classical music would even be the pinnacle. It might be too restrictive.
I believe popular music (music for the masses) and serious music have lived side by side for hundreds of years. But around the 1920's, and 1930's, with the advent of radio, film, then TV, and eventually internet, serious music is struggling to find relevance with an audience that is becoming increasingly interested in instant gratification. It is hard to justify sitting through an hour long concert piece if the best climax might be available on youtube or itunes in chunks. Ultimately, the ease of getting something reduces its value.
I find this section from Igor Stravinsky’s autobiography relevant. In his very perceptive autobiography, he discusses the pros and cons of musicians reaching wider audiences and how the advent of new technology (he was referring to radio though it could just as easily have been the ipod, internet, or whatever) would ultimately weaken the reach of music because now it requires less effort from its audience. In this passage, Stravinsky convincingly makes the case that the ease that it takes listeners to hear music ultimately deadens their interest in music.
"The propagation of music by mechanical means and the broadcasting of music - that represent formidable scientific conquests, which are very likely to spread even more - merit close examination as for their importance and their effects in the domain of music. Of course, the possibility for both authors and performers to reach the masses, and the fact that these masses are able to make themselves acquainted with musical works, represent an unquestionable advantage. However, it cannot be concealed that this advantage is dangerous at the same time. In the past, someone like Johann-Sebastian Bach had to walk ten leagues in order to hear Buxtehude perform his works. Today, any inhabitant of any country simply has to either turn a knob or play a record in order to listen to the piece of his choice. Well! It is in this very incredible easiness, in this very lack of effort that lies the vice of that so-called progress. In music, more than in any other branch of art, comprehension is only given to those who actively contribute to it. In itself, the massive reception is not enough. The listening of certain combinations of sounds, and the automatic growing accustomed to them does not necessarily involve the fact of hearing and grasping them, for one can listen without hearing, the same way one can watch without seeing. What renders people lazy is their lack of active effort and their developing of a liking for this easiness. People no longer need to move about as Bach had to; the radio spares them the traveling. Neither do they absolutely need to make music themselves and to waste time studying an instrument in order to know the musical literature. The radio and the disc take over. As a result, the active faculties, without which music cannot be assimilated, gradually atrophy among the listeners who no longer train them. This gradual paralysis leads to extremely serious consequences. Overwhelmed with sounds, the most varied combinations of which leave them indifferent, people fall into a sort of mindless state, that deprives them of all ability to judge, and renders them indifferent to the very quality of what they are served. In the near future, such disorganized overfeeding is more than likely to make listeners lose their hunger and their liking for music. Indeed, there will always be some exceptions - some people within the hoard will be able to select what they like. However, concerning the masses, one has all the reasons to fear that instead of generating love for and understanding of music, the modern means involved in spreading music will lead absolutely to opposite results; it is to say, they will lead to indifference, to the inability to recognize them, to be guided by them, and to have any reaction of some value." Igor Stravinsky - "Chronicles of My Life" – 1935
I believe serious music is in our blood. I read about an experiment where rats were tested by psychologists to see how they would react to Bach's music and rock music. The rats were placed into two different boxes. Rock music was played in one of the boxes while Bach's music was played in the other box. The rats could choose to switch boxes through a tunnel that connected both boxes. Almost all of the rats chose to go into the box with the Bach music even after the type of music was switched from one box to the other. According to an article that appeared in the LA Times recently, “Dr. Antonio Damasio, director of USC's Brain and Creativity Institute, is an expert on emotion and a committed musicophile. Even if music did little more than lift our spirits, he says, it would be a powerful force in maintaining physical and mental health. The pleasure that results from listening to music we love stimulates the release of neural growth factors that promote the vigor, growth and replacement of brain cells.”
Responses to music are easy to be detected in the human body. Classical music from the baroque period causes the heart beat and pulse rate to relax to the beat of the music. As the body becomes relaxed and alert, the mind is able to concentrate more easily. Furthermore, baroque music decreases blood pressure and enhances the ability to learn. Music affects the amplitude and frequency of brain waves, which can be measured by an electro-encephalogram. Music also affects breathing rate and electrical resistance of the skin. It has been observed to cause the pupils to dilate, increase blood pressure, and increase the heart rate. You could see this as evidence that well written and well performed music won't go away. It's in our blood.
My point here is ultimately that orchestras are competing with instant gratification cultures. There are some who respond better to the real deal, but that is increasingly rare with our current cultural mindset. Orchestras need to evolve to remain relevant. They need to be properly marketed and “sold” to new audiences otherwise their relevance will reduce. Orchestral composers need to create masterpieces that show the orchestra as the only device cable of expressing their musical vision. Note some orchestras are doing extremely well.
Great question. Sorry for the extremely verbose response, I have a few opinions on this topic. ;)